Evaluating the Resilience of Agricultural Supply Chains Against Environmental Uncertainties: Evidence from the Tea and Rice Industries of East Gilan

Abstract

The escalating frequency and severity of environmental uncertainties, primarily driven by anthropogenic climate change and ecological degradation, have introduced unprecedented vulnerabilities into global agricultural systems, necessitating a paradigm shift toward structurally resilient supply chain architectures. This comprehensive empirical study meticulously evaluates the resilience of agricultural supply chains operating under the continuous threat of stochastic environmental disruptions, with a specific, highly contextualized focus on the historically significant and economically vital tea and rice industries of the East Gilan province. Recognizing the profound socio-economic reliance of this region on these specific agronomic outputs, the research investigates the complex interplay between environmental unpredictability—including erratic precipitation patterns, extreme temperature fluctuations, and hydrological scarcities—and the operational endurance of local agricultural networks. By deploying a rigorous, quantitative research methodology anchored in a structured questionnaire distributed among key supply chain stakeholders, farmers, and distributors throughout East Gilan in the year 2024, the study systematically quantifies the specific dimensions of vulnerability and the adaptive capacities inherent within these traditional agricultural matrices. The empirical analysis is designed to elucidate the critical factors that dictate supply chain resilience, focusing heavily on operational flexibility, strategic resource buffering, and the emergent role of digital capabilities in mitigating agronomic risks. Ultimately, this extensive academic inquiry seeks to bridge the critical gap between theoretical supply chain resilience frameworks and practical, localized agricultural realities, providing a robust, data-driven strategic blueprint for agrifood practitioners, regional policymakers, and agricultural cooperatives striving to fortify food security, sustain rural livelihoods, and navigate the compounding complexities of an increasingly volatile environmental landscape.